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Under what conditions should we expect states to do things radically differently all of a sudden? In this book, David Welch seeks to answer this question, constructing a theory of foreign policy change inspired by organization theory, cognitive and motivational psychology, and prospect theory. He then "test drives" the theory in a series of comparative case studies in the security and trade domains: Argentina's decision to go to war over the Falklands/Malvinas vs. Japan's endless patience with diplomacy in its conflict with Russia over the Northern Territories; America's decision to commit large-scale military force to Vietnam vs. its ultimate decision to withdraw; and Canada's two abortive flirtations with free trade with the United States in 1911 and 1948 vs. its embrace of free trade in the late 1980s.Painful Choices has three main objectives: to determine whether the general theory project in the field of international relations can be redeemed, given disappointment with previous attempts; to reflect on what this reveals about the possibilities and limits of general theory; and to inform policy. Welch argues that earlier efforts at general theory erred by aiming to explain state behavior, which is an intractable problem. Instead, since inertia is the default expectation in international politics, all we need do is to explain changes in behavior. Painful Choices shows that this is a tractable problem with clear implications for intelligence analysts and negotiators.
Table of Contents:
List of Figures and Tables ix
CHAPTER 1: Surprise, Anticipation, and Theory 10
The Case for a Decision-Based Theory of Behavior 18
The Case for a Theory of Foreign Policy Change 23
CHAPTER 2: A Theory of Foreign Policy Change 30
Building Blocks 31
A Loss-Aversion Theory of Foreign Policy Change 45
Devils in the Details 51
CHAPTER 3: Useless Islands Disputes 72
Las Islas Malvinas 73
The Northern Territories 95
Crucial Differences 113
CHAPTER 4: American Boys in an Asian War 117
Turning Points 129
The Johnson Escalation 134
Nixinger and the Endgame 147
How Do the Hypotheses Fare? 160
CHAPTER 5: Free Trade with the United States: Two Funerals and a Wedding 168
Overview and Background 169
Laurier and the Reciprocity Agreement of 1911 177
King and the Reciprocity Nonagreement of 1948 185
Mulroney and the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, 1988 193
CHAPTER 6: Conclusion 216
Works Cited 233
|Title:||Painful Choices||Publisher:||Princeton University Press|
|Author:||David A Welch|
|Edition:||Ebook , EPUB|
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